Search engine optimization (SEO) has become a pivotal strategy for lead generation. By ranking highly in search engines, companies can drive targeted traffic to their site and convert searchers into quality leads.
But how many leads can you really expect from an SEO campaign? And how do you calculate that? Planning and communicating this upfront can setup expectations between senior leadership and your writing team. Instead of just writing for traffic, you’re writing with a low-funnel target in mind.
In this guide, we’ll walk through a proven methodology for forecasting leads from SEO using key metrics like search volume, rankings, and conversion rates. Follow along with our example campaign estimates and use these formulas to set realistic goals for your next initiative.
Defining the Demand Generation Funnel
First, let’s define the key metrics that make up our demand generation funnel from SEO:
- Search Volume: We’ll target the keyword topic “project management” (and related terms) which has a search volume of 1 million queries per month
- Ranking: We expect we can achieve an average ranking of #7 for this term
- Traffic: Ranking #7 drives approximately 2.5% of the 1 million search volume, or 25,000 visits per month
- Lead Rate: 1% of these 25,000 visitors convert into leads, so 25,000 visitors x 1% rate = 250 leads
- Opportunities: We historically convert 30% of our leads into sales opportunities, so 30% x 250 leads = 75 opportunities
- Customers: With a 40% “win rate” on opportunities, 40% of 75 opportunities equals 30 new customers
So in summary, our demand gen funnel from SEO now looks like
- Search Volume: 1,000,000
- Traffic at Rank #7: 25,000 visits/month
- Lead Rate @ 1%: 250 Leads
- Opportunities @ 30%: 75
- New Customers @ 40%: 30
We’ll follow this exact funnel through the rest of the article to estimate our campaign potential and demonstrate optimization.
Content Funnel and Keyword Research
First, let’s map out the typical content funnel that transforms strangers from web search into traffic:
Top of Funnel (TOFU): The awareness stage where people use broad informational queries to learn about a topic.
Middle of Funnel (MOFU): The consideration phase where searchers compare options and dive into product/service reviews.
Bottom of Funnel (BOFU): The decision stage focused on pricing, demonstrations, and location-based searches.
Each stage has different keyword opportunities and conversion rates. As you progress down the funnel, traffic becomes more qualified and more likely to convert.
Now let’s walk through how to forecast leads at each phase.
Top of Funnel Keyword Research
Our goal is to estimate the number of leads for an SEO campaign focused on the broad topic “project management”. We can use tools to analyze search volume data to inform content strategies.
First, use a tool like Google’s Keyword Planner, Search Alkemy or SEMrush to analyze the monthly search volume for this term and related keywords.
For our example, let’s say we find a search volume of 1 million for “project management” and related long-tail key phrases. This provides the total market opportunity.
Next, we need to estimate our ability to rank for these terms by establishing an average ranking target. From past campaigns, we know we can likely achieve approximately Page 1, ranking position #7 for our key terms. You’ll need to forecast based on what you’ve seen in the past. If you estimate averaging page 2 rankings, consider a smaller, less competitive main topic.
Tip: You can easily compare market opportunities using Search Alkemy
Type in different input keywords and compare search volumes of total market opportunities, next to keyword difficulty for easy ROI forecasting.
Calculating Ranking-Based Traffic Potential
We translate this ranking into an estimated traffic number. According to Advanced Web Rankings, the click-through-rate (CTR) for position 7 is approximately 2.5%.
That means out of our total search volume, we would expect to drive 2.5% or 25,000 visits per month by ranking #7 given the 1 million search volume.
If we were trying to reach position #1, we could expect 15% of the traffic or 150,000 visits per month based on the higher rank CTR.
But in competitive spaces, a more realistic goal is optimizing for mid-level rankings to start driving visits.
Projecting Traffic Conversions into Leads
Not all traffic converts equally, so the next step is determining our lead rate or inquiry rate from organic search visitors.
As a benchmark, the average lead conversion rate from SEO traffic is around 2-3%. But it varies widely by industry. SaaS products, for example, can expect 6-12% while ecommerce sites see less than 2%.
Analyze the keywords and existing site metrics to set a tailored conversion rate estimate.
For our example site focused on project management, let’s assume we have some gated tools and templates that will convert 1 out of 100 visitors into leads. So we’ll model a 1% lead rate across our SEO traffic.
With 25,000 estimated organic visitors and a 1% lead rate, our monthly lead estimate comes to 250 leads.
Not bad for a single target keyword! Now scale that out across 20+ terms in an extended SEO campaign, and you can see how the leads start compounding.
Factors That Impact Conversion Rates
As we explored before, lead rates vary widely across companies based on:
- Industry – The baseline inquiry on a SaaS site is higher than an informational blog.
- Keyword Intent – Bottom of funnel commercial terms convert better than broad questions.
- Page Quality – Well-optimized landing pages drive more leads per visitor.
- Offer Relevance – Targeted gated offers improve conversion rates.
- Past Performance – Don’t ignore your own site metrics and heatmap data.
Understanding these factors allows you to better predict future behavior.
Let’s say half our keywords are lower-funnel with a 1.5% lead rate based on our free trial offer pages. The other half of informational keywords drive fewer conversions at a 0.5% rate to our template content. By splitting keywords and assigning tailored conversion rates, we improve accuracy and build further trust in the estimates.
Expanding the Funnel to Opportunities & Customers
Now that we’ve modeled our lead volumes, we can take it one step further to project customer pipeline all the way through closed deals.
Typical sales funnel stages include
Leads -> Opportunities -> Customers
To continue our example, let’s assume 30% of leads ultimately become sales qualified opportunities after further nurturing.
And out of those opportunities, 40% close and convert into paying customers each month.
That means if we start with 250 estimated leads in month one, we would expect:
- 250 Leads
- 75 Opportunities (at a 30% opportunity rate)
- 30 Customers (at a 40% win rate on opportunities)
Rinse and repeat this process for each month of the campaign to show cumulative customer growth over time.
While each industry has their own typical conversion benchmarks, use your historical performance to set accurate expectations.
Projecting Revenue Potential
Now that we’ve estimated our new customer volume, we can take this one step further to put dollar values on the campaign.
Let’s look at the first year revenue potential along with long term customer lifetime value (LTV).
First Year Revenue
Let’s say this is a B2B software, and that the average first year order value is approximately $1,000 per customer.
So with our funnel projecting 30 new customers per month, or 360 new customers in the first year, we can expect around $360,000 in recurring annual revenue from this cohort.
30 monthly customers x 12 months x $1,000 order value = $360,000 revenue
Factoring In Customer Lifetime Value
But the value of an SEO customer extends well beyond year one. Let’s factor in customer lifetime as well.
Industry benchmarks estimate the average customer lifetime at around 5 years for this type of B2B product.
$360K x 5 = $1.8M
That’s 1.8 Million Dollars!
And this doesn’t even include factors such as compounding expansion revenue as well as customers added in future periods on top of that.
The Takeaway?
Investing in SEO to generate leads today leads to significant long term revenue. The initial campaign cost is minor compared to unlocking continuous revenue growth for years to come.
So when thinking about an SEO budget, consider the full lifetime value rather than just the upfront costs or immediate return. This can help you sell your ideas to management and get inspire your content team.
Ongoing Optimization & Improvements
The benefit of closely modeling your SEO lead funnel is that it allows ongoing refinement and optimization.
As you expand keywords and content over time, you can track actual lead outcomes to find gaps and continuously improve. Analyze keyword-level performance to double down on the terms capturing the most conversions. Pay attention to seasonality and trendlines as well.
You can also test new gated content formats as lead magnets. For example if PDF templates tend to convert better than ebooks based on past campaigns, produce more of that winning format. The key is tying your ongoing keyword and content expansion back to the lead model forecasts. Beat those initial estimates through superior execution over time.
But also don’t get discouraged if your actual lead volumes come in below the forecasts early on. SEO takes patience to build rankings and traffic month-over-month. Stay the course, track insights closely, and ramp up as you climb keywords over time. As data changes, update future models and be clear to leadership what was off in your forecasts.
They will be grateful you went this far, as it can be difficult to actually forecast how many dollars SEO can help contribute to overall revenue.
Estimating Leads from SEO Campaigns
Generating leads and sales from SEO involves many interconnected variables. But by breaking down key metrics at each funnel stage you can better set objectives, allocate resources, and report on performance.
SEO Modeling for ROI Projections
- Keyword search volume opportunities
- Expected click-through-rate at target rankings
- Industry and keyword-specific conversion rates
- Expand projections through the full sales funnel
- Compare actual lead outcomes to your forecasts, and continuously optimize pages and content to improve conversion rates over time.
- Accurately planning and estimating an SEO lead generation campaign removes guesswork and ties activities directly to bottom line revenue impacts. Ultimately driving more predictable growth through organic search.